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SD Family vs Zhetisay — 1. Division 2019

SD Family
SD Family
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zhetisay
Zhetisay
B. Madelkhan 60'
D. Mazhitov 90+1'
T. Zuftarov 46'
9/27/20241. Division1. Division · Round 26Sydykbek Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

SD Family34%
×Draw22%
Zhetisay44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Family
1.66
Zhetisay
1.92

Zhetisay creates 16% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

creates per match

SD Family
1.81
Zhetisay
1.43

allows per match

SD Family
2.41
Zhetisay
1.50

finishing

SD Family+0.00on par
Zhetisay+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Family ↓

Zhetisay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SD Family or draw
56%
SD Family or Zhetisay
78%
Draw or Zhetisay
66%

Winning margin

SD Family wins by 2+
17%
Zhetisay wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

SD Family 1+ goals
81%
SD Family 2+ goals
49%
SD Family 3+ goals
23%
Zhetisay 1+ goals
85%
Zhetisay 2+ goals
57%
Zhetisay 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

SD Family (draw refunded)
43%
Zhetisay (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Family at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.41 · 27 matches

Zhetisay away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Family attack 1.81 + Zhetisay defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Zhetisay attack 1.43 + SD Family defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SD Family scores more
34%
level
22%
Zhetisay scores more
44%

Zhetisay at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zhetisay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Z. Erkinbay
40'
B. Akhaev
46'
T. Zuftarov
55'
A. Dadakhanov← A. Dadakhanov
55'
B. Kalibay← B. Kalibay
59'
S. Beyseev
60'
B. Madelkhan
61'
E. Sarbay
62'
D. Mazhitov← D. Mazhitov
70'
B. Akhaev
70'
D. Mazhitov
76'
B. Madelkhan← D. Andyrmash
81'
D. Maulenov
88'
M. Tursun← M. Tursun
88'
A. Saparov← A. Saparov
90+1'
D. Mazhitov
90+3'
A. Raizo← A. Raizo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SD Family vs Zhetisay

Zhetisay beat SD Family 2-1 in 1. Division on September 27, 2024.

Goals: T. Zuftarov (46'), B. Madelkhan (60'), D. Mazhitov (90+1').

The match was played at Sydykbek Arena in Aleksandrovka.