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SD Family vs Zhetisay — Cup 2019

SD Family
SD Family
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zhetisay
Zhetisay
K. Narkulov 90+2'
D. Andyrmash 52' (pen)
D. Mazhitov 38'
3/23/2024CupCup · Play-offsBIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SD Family42%
×Draw21%
Zhetisay37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Family
2.13
Zhetisay
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

SD Family
1.50
Zhetisay
1.00

allows per match

SD Family
3.00
Zhetisay
2.75

finishing

SD Family+0.00on par
Zhetisay+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Family ↓

Zhetisay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

SD Family or draw
63%
SD Family or Zhetisay
79%
Draw or Zhetisay
58%

Winning margin

SD Family wins by 2+
24%
Zhetisay wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SD Family 1+ goals
88%
SD Family 2+ goals
63%
SD Family 3+ goals
35%
Zhetisay 1+ goals
86%
Zhetisay 2+ goals
59%
Zhetisay 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

SD Family (draw refunded)
53%
Zhetisay (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Family at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Zhetisay away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Family attack 1.50 + Zhetisay defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Zhetisay attack 1.00 + SD Family defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SD Family scores more
42%
level
21%
Zhetisay scores more
37%

SD Family at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SD Family will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
D. Maulenov
7'
B. Madelkhan
38'
D. Mazhitov
38'
A. Kumarov← A. Kumarov
43'
K. Orazbek
52'
D. AndyrmashPenalty
69'
D. Mazhitov← B. Kalibay
79'
I. Demin
80'
E. Aytore← E. Aytore
83'
K. Narkulov
88'
S. Shymyrkhan← S. Shymyrkhan
90'
B. Ryskul
90+2'
K. Narkulov
90+5'
R. Serikkul
90+5'
I. Dadaev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SD Family vs Zhetisay

SD Family beat Zhetisay 2-1 in Cup on March 23, 2024.

Goals: D. Mazhitov (38'), D. Andyrmash (52' pen), K. Narkulov (90+2').

The match was played at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole in Shymkent.