SD Family 0–9 Kyran: Result & Stats | Cup

SD Family

0 – 9

Kyran

4/22/2021

Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundAstana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

SD Family23%

×Draw17%

Kyran60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SD FamilyExpected goals in this matchKyran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

3.00

SD Family

1.85

Kyran

3.00

Kyran creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

3.00

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

SD Family

1.50

Kyran

3.00

allows per match

SD Family

3.00

Kyran

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SD Family+0.00on par

Kyran+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Family ↓

Kyran →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

SD Family or draw

40%

SD Family or Kyran

83%

Draw or Kyran

77%

Winning margin

SD Family wins by 2+

11%

Kyran wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

SD Family 1+ goals

84%

SD Family 2+ goals

55%

SD Family 3+ goals

28%

Kyran 1+ goals

95%

Kyran 2+ goals

79%

Kyran 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

SD Family (draw refunded)

27%

Kyran (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SD Family at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Kyran away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SD Family attack 1.50 + Kyran defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Kyran attack 3.00 + SD Family defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

SD Family scores more

23%

level

17%

Kyran scores more

60%

Kyran at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff