Kyran 1–0 SD Family: Result & Stats | Cup

Kyran

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SD Family

E. Sarbay 81'

3/22/2023

Cup · Qualifying Round - 2Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kyran31%

×Draw22%

SD Family47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KyranExpected goals in this matchSD Family

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.92

Kyran

1.52

SD Family

1.92

SD Family creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.20

creates per match

1.83

2.00

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Kyran

1.20

SD Family

1.83

allows per match

Kyran

2.00

SD Family

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyran+0.00on par

SD Family+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyran ↓

SD Family →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kyran or draw

53%

Kyran or SD Family

78%

Draw or SD Family

69%

Winning margin

Kyran wins by 2+

14%

SD Family wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Kyran 1+ goals

78%

Kyran 2+ goals

45%

Kyran 3+ goals

20%

SD Family 1+ goals

85%

SD Family 2+ goals

57%

SD Family 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Kyran (draw refunded)

40%

SD Family (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kyran at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

SD Family away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kyran attack 1.20 + SD Family defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

SD Family attack 1.83 + Kyran defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kyran scores more

31%

level

22%

SD Family scores more

47%

SD Family at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SD Family will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Raizo← A. Raizo

46'

A. Tuleyev← A. Tuleyev

50'

D. Kanatkali

54'

E. Sarbay

56'

S. Abduvaitov← S. Abduvaitov

56'

A. Ermekuulu← A. Ermekuulu

64'

U. Kuanyshbekov← N. Kuanyshkaliyev

64'

M. Dunzurov← M. Dunzurov

64'

E. Oralbay← E. Oralbay

71'

A. Altaev← A. Altaev

73'

R. Kabdullov← R. Kabdullov

81'

E. Sarbay

87'

M. Dunzurov

88'

E. Oralbay

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff