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SD Family vs Akademiya Ontustik — 1. Division 2019

SD Family
SD Family
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
5/8/20251. Division1. Division · Round 5Zhas Kyran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

SD Family40%
×Draw22%
Akademiya Ontustik38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Family
1.88
Akademiya Ontustik
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 76 away

creates per match

SD Family
1.81
Akademiya Ontustik
1.24

allows per match

SD Family
2.41
Akademiya Ontustik
1.95

finishing

SD Family+0.00on par
Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Family ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SD Family or draw
62%
SD Family or Akademiya Ontustik
78%
Draw or Akademiya Ontustik
60%

Winning margin

SD Family wins by 2+
21%
Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SD Family 1+ goals
85%
SD Family 2+ goals
56%
SD Family 3+ goals
29%
Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
84%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
54%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

SD Family (draw refunded)
51%
Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Family at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.41 · 27 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.95 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Family attack 1.81 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.88

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.24 + SD Family defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SD Family scores more
40%
level
22%
Akademiya Ontustik scores more
38%

SD Family at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SD Family will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: SD Family 0–3 Akademiya Ontustik

Akademiya Ontustik beat SD Family 3-0 in 1. Division on May 8, 2025.

The match was played at Zhas Kyran Stadium in Almaty.