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Akademiya Ontustik vs SD Family — Cup 2019

Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
SD Family
SD Family
3/18/2023CupCup · Qualifying Round - 1Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik47%
×Draw20%
SD Family33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademiya Ontustik
2.23
SD Family
1.85

Akademiya Ontustik creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik
2.63
SD Family
1.83

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.88
SD Family
1.83

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par
SD Family+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

SD Family →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw
67%
Akademiya Ontustik or SD Family
80%
Draw or SD Family
53%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
27%
SD Family wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
89%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
65%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
38%
SD Family 1+ goals
84%
SD Family 2+ goals
55%
SD Family 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
59%
SD Family (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

SD Family away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 2.63 + SD Family defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.23

SD Family attack 1.83 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more
47%
level
20%
SD Family scores more
33%

Akademiya Ontustik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Akademiya Ontustik 2–3 SD Family

SD Family beat Akademiya Ontustik 3-2 in Cup on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field in Shymkent.