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Scunthorpe vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
M. Hippolyte 4' (pen)
8/28/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe36%
×Draw28%
Tranmere35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.18
Tranmere
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 144 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Tranmere
0.97

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Tranmere
1.47

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
65%
Scunthorpe or Tranmere
72%
Draw or Tranmere
64%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
15%
Tranmere wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
69%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
33%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
12%
Tranmere 1+ goals
69%
Tranmere 2+ goals
32%
Tranmere 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
51%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
36%
level
28%
Tranmere scores more
35%

Scunthorpe at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Scunthorpe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
P. ClarkeTranmereTranmere · D
7.7

Match Events

4'
M. HippolytePenalty
5'
Myles Hippolyte
17'
Tom Pugh
56'
C. Merrie← C. MacDonald
56'
K. Morris← P. Glatzel
58'
Chris Merrie
64'
D. Gallimore← M. Hippolyte
69'
T. O'Neill← A. Jarvis
72'
E. Dieseruvwe← R. Watson
77'
Nathaniel Knight-Percival
83'
C. Wilson← D. Green

Possession

27%Scunthorpe

Shots

10Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

40%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeTranmere
Overview
27%Possession73%
10Total Shots5
4Corners6
13Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots5
6On Target0
3Off Target3
1Blocked2
8Inside Box1
2Outside Box4
Passing
27%Possession73%
237Total Passes633
130Accurate Passes530
55%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

League Two: Scunthorpe 1–0 Tranmere

Scunthorpe beat Tranmere 1-0 in League Two on August 28, 2021.

Goals: M. Hippolyte (4' pen).

Tranmere controlled possession (73%) and registered 5 shots to 10.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.