Scunthorpe 0–0 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tranmere

4/10/2021

League Two · Round 41Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe36%

×Draw28%

Tranmere35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.16

Scunthorpe

1.18

Tranmere

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 144 away

0.89

creates per match

0.97

1.35

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Tranmere

0.97

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Tranmere

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

65%

Scunthorpe or Tranmere

72%

Draw or Tranmere

64%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

15%

Tranmere wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

69%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

33%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

12%

Tranmere 1+ goals

69%

Tranmere 2+ goals

32%

Tranmere 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

51%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

36%

level

28%

Tranmere scores more

35%

Scunthorpe at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Scunthorpe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

P. Clarke

Tranmere · D

7.9

Match Events

42'

45'

64'

65'

73'

C. Taylor← A. Crawford

76'

O. Olomola← J. McAtee

78'

K. Morris← L. Feeney

88'

J. Rowe← T. Howe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeTranmere

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots19

2Corners12

8Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots19

3On Target3

5Off Target13

1Blocked3

4Inside Box14

5Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

317Total Passes412

187Accurate Passes291

59%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3