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Scunthorpe vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Salford City
Salford City
R. Loft 37'
C. McAleny 58'
11/13/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe29%
×Draw28%
Salford City43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.04
Salford City
1.33

Salford City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 156 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Salford City
1.31

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
57%
Scunthorpe or Salford City
72%
Draw or Salford City
71%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
11%
Salford City wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
65%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
28%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
9%
Salford City 1+ goals
74%
Salford City 2+ goals
38%
Salford City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
40%
Salford City (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Salford City attack 1.31 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
29%
level
28%
Salford City scores more
43%

Salford City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
M. O'MalleyScunthorpeScunthorpe · D
7.9

Match Events

32'
Ryan Loft
37'
R. Loft↳ M. O'Malley
45+2'
Alex Kenyon
45+2'
Jason Lowe
47'
Alex Perry
56'
Kelly N'Mai
58'
C. McAleny↳ M. Lund
60'
A. Oteh← K. N’Mai
62'
Brandon Thomas-Asante
68'
R. Millen← M. Hippolyte
81'
A. Jarvis← J. Scrimshaw
81'
T. Pugh← H. Hackney
89'
M. Dackers← C. McAleny

Possession

48%Scunthorpe

Shots

11Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

47%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeSalford
Overview
48%Possession52%
11Total Shots12
3Corners6
12Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots12
1On Target3
5Off Target6
5Blocked3
9Inside Box5
2Outside Box7
Passing
48%Possession52%
370Total Passes406
214Accurate Passes269
58%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Scunthorpe vs Salford City

Scunthorpe and Salford City drew 1-1 in League Two on November 13, 2021.

Goals: R. Loft (37'), C. McAleny (58').

Salford City controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.