Salford City 1–1 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Salford City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Scunthorpe

T. Clarke 33'

Abobaker Eisa 43' (pen)

3/6/2021

League Two · Round 34The Peninsula Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Salford City53%

×Draw25%

Scunthorpe23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salford CityExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.98

Salford City

1.64

Scunthorpe

0.98

Salford City creates 67% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 64 away

1.40

creates per match

0.83

1.14

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Salford City

1.40

Scunthorpe

0.83

allows per match

Salford City

1.14

Scunthorpe

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salford City+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Salford City or draw

77%

Salford City or Scunthorpe

75%

Draw or Scunthorpe

47%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+

28%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals

81%

Salford City 2+ goals

49%

Salford City 3+ goals

23%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

62%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

26%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)

70%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.14 · 157 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.40 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.64

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Salford City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Salford City scores more

53%

level

25%

Scunthorpe scores more

23%

Salford City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

L. Spence

Scunthorpe · M

7.5

Match Events

14'

21'

33'

34'

43'

Abobaker EisaPenalty

45'

Myles Hippolyte

46'

J. Clarke← H. McGahey

55'

O. Threlkeld← P. Coutts

55'

B. Thomas-Asante← R. Towell

63'

J. Karacan← K. van Veen

64'

E. Dieseruvwe← R. Gotts

68'

Brandon Thomas-Asante

71'

A. Beestin← J. Hallam

71'

D. Green← M. Hippolyte

81'

Bruno Andrade← A. Hunter

88'

Ian Henderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SalfordScunthorpe

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots5

6Corners2

13Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots5

1On Target3

6Off Target0

2Blocked2

6Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

424Total Passes334

256Accurate Passes182

60%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1