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Scunthorpe vs Plymouth — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Plymouth
Plymouth
K. van Veen 65'
L. Jephcott 56', 12'
B. Moore 50'
1/4/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 26Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Scunthorpe27%
×Draw28%
Plymouth45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
0.97
Plymouth
1.34

Plymouth creates 38% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 24 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Plymouth
1.33

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Plymouth
1.04

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
55%
Scunthorpe or Plymouth
72%
Draw or Plymouth
73%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
10%
Plymouth wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
62%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
25%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
7%
Plymouth 1+ goals
74%
Plymouth 2+ goals
39%
Plymouth 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
37%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Plymouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Plymouth attack 1.33 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
27%
level
28%
Plymouth scores more
45%

Plymouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
L. JephcottPlymouthPlymouth · F
8.4

Match Events

12'
L. Jephcott↳ G. Cooper
21'
Antoni Sarcevic
45'
George Cooper
50'
B. Moore↳ G. Cooper
56'
L. Jephcott
57'
K. van Veen← L. Sutton
60'
Ngosi Ntlhe
65'
K. van Veen↳ H. McGahey
73'
Joel Grant← B. Moore
77'
R. Colclough← A. Gilliead
79'
B. Clarke← L. Jephcott
84'
C. Grant← G. Cooper

Possession

63%Scunthorpe

Shots

18Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

58%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpePlymouth
Overview
63%Possession37%
18Total Shots10
7Corners1
11Fouls16
Shots
18Total Shots10
5On Target6
7Off Target3
6Blocked1
10Inside Box7
8Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
537Total Passes313
390Accurate Passes164
73%Pass Accuracy52%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

League Two: Scunthorpe 1–3 Plymouth

Plymouth beat Scunthorpe 3-1 in League Two on January 4, 2020.

Goals: L. Jephcott (12', 56'), B. Moore (50'), K. van Veen (65').

Scunthorpe controlled possession (63%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.