Plymouth 3–2 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Scunthorpe

G. Carey 70'

F. Ladapo 35'

L. Jones 8'

J. Morris 60'

K. Wootton 42'

5/4/2019

League One · Round 46Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Plymouth46%

×Draw25%

Scunthorpe29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.23

Plymouth

1.62

Scunthorpe

1.23

Plymouth creates 32% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 29 away

1.55

creates per match

1.21

1.24

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Plymouth

1.55

Scunthorpe

1.21

allows per match

Plymouth

1.24

Scunthorpe

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plymouth+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

71%

Plymouth or Scunthorpe

75%

Draw or Scunthorpe

54%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

24%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

80%

Plymouth 2+ goals

48%

Plymouth 3+ goals

22%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

71%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

35%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

62%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.24 · 115 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.55 + Scunthorpe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.62

Scunthorpe attack 1.21 + Plymouth defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Plymouth scores more

46%

level

25%

Scunthorpe scores more

29%

Plymouth at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

11'

18'

19'

21'

35'

F. Ladapo↳ A. Sarcevic

36'

42'

45'

60'

63'

70'

G. Carey↳ Ruben Lameiras

73'

J. Hallam← K. Wootton

74'

Adam Hammill

77'

Yann Songo'o

77'

K. van Veen← R. McArdle

78'

Matthew Lund

80'

J. Ness← D. Fox

81'

G. Thomas← C. Lewis

84'

N. Canavan← A. Sarcevic

Plymouth

Scunthorpe

25

Alnwick

5

Webster

14

Perch

23

▼

3

47

7

11

⚽

Morris

15

▼

Lewis

17

Novak

29

⚽

▼

Wootton

1

▼

Macey

3

Sawyer

4

Songo'o

20

⚽

Jones

5

Edwards

26

Threlkeld

8

▼

Fox

10

⚽

Carey

7

A

▼

Sarcevic

11

A

Lameiras

19

⚽

Ladapo

Manager: K. Nancekivell

63'▲M. Cooper←▼M. Macey

80'▲J. Ness←▼D. Fox

84'▲N. Canavan←▼A. Sarcevic

Plymouth substitutes

31Cooper6Ness14Canavan9Taylor13Anderson23Smith-Brown29Fletcher

Manager: A. Dawson

73'▲J. Hallam←▼K. Wootton

77'▲K. van Veen←▼R. McArdle

81'▲G. Thomas←▼C. Lewis

Scunthorpe substitutes

30Hallam10Veen18Thomas21Burgess22Sutton26McGahey27Flatt

League One: Plymouth 3–2 Scunthorpe

Plymouth beat Scunthorpe 3-2 in League One on May 4, 2019.

Goals: L. Jones (8'), F. Ladapo (35'), K. Wootton (42'), J. Morris (60'), G. Carey (70').

The match was played at Home Park in Plymouth.

Plymouth vs Scunthorpe — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League One: Plymouth 3–2 Scunthorpe