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Scunthorpe vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
2/22/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 24Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe31%
×Draw28%
Northampton42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.06
Northampton
1.29

Northampton creates 22% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 88 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
58%
Scunthorpe or Northampton
72%
Draw or Northampton
69%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
12%
Northampton wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
65%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
29%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
9%
Northampton 1+ goals
72%
Northampton 2+ goals
37%
Northampton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
42%
Northampton (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Northampton attack 1.24 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
31%
level
28%
Northampton scores more
42%

Northampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
R. MillenScunthorpeScunthorpe · D
7.9

Match Events

45'
Tyler Magloire
46'
Jon Guthrie
59'
Anthony Grant
62'
Ali Koiki
74'
M. O'Malley← L. Thompson
74'
J. Eppiah← B. Lubala
75'
B. Ashley-Seal← D. Rose
78'
Joe Nuttall
79'
H. Hackney← H. Bunn
82'
Sam Hoskins
88'
S. Burns← T. Sinclair
90'
Joshua Okpoda Eppiah

Possession

52%Scunthorpe

Shots

8Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

52%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeNorthampton
Overview
52%Possession48%
8Total Shots9
7Corners5
14Fouls19
Shots
8Total Shots9
2On Target3
2Off Target3
4Blocked3
4Inside Box6
4Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
338Total Passes321
198Accurate Passes172
59%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls19
2Yellow Cards5
0Offsides1

League Two: Scunthorpe 0–0 Northampton

Scunthorpe and Northampton drew 0-0 in League Two on February 22, 2022.

Scunthorpe controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.