Northampton 3–0 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Scunthorpe

S. Hoskins 70' (pen)

V. Oliver 62', 7'

1/28/2020

League Two · Round 30PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Northampton57%

×Draw24%

Scunthorpe19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.86

Northampton

1.68

Scunthorpe

0.86

Northampton creates 95% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 64 away

1.48

creates per match

0.83

0.89

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Scunthorpe

0.83

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Scunthorpe

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

81%

Northampton or Scunthorpe

76%

Draw or Scunthorpe

43%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

31%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

81%

Northampton 2+ goals

50%

Northampton 3+ goals

24%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

58%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

21%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

75%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.68

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Northampton scores more

57%

level

24%

Scunthorpe scores more

19%

Northampton at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

V. Oliver

Northampton · F

8.4

Match Events

2'

7'

36'

41'

55'

M. Marshall← P. Anderson

55'

C. Morton← A. Williams

62'

V. Oliver

70'

Harrison McGahey

70'

S. HoskinsPenalty

75'

C. Lines← N. Adams

85'

Jordan Gabriel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonScunthorpe

Overview

40%Possession60%

17Total Shots15

1Corners6

17Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots15

5On Target4

5Off Target8

7Blocked3

12Inside Box5

5Outside Box10

Passing

40%Possession60%

247Total Passes362

132Accurate Passes261

53%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2