Scunthorpe 0–4 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Mansfield Town

S. Quinn 46'

R. Stirk 38'

S. McLaughlin 32'

A. Grant 16' (OG)

4/9/2022

League Two · Round 41Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe29%

×Draw28%

Mansfield Town43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.30

Scunthorpe

1.02

Mansfield Town

1.30

Mansfield Town creates 27% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 141 away

0.89

creates per match

1.25

1.35

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

57%

Scunthorpe or Mansfield Town

72%

Draw or Mansfield Town

71%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

11%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

64%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

27%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

8%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

73%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

37%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

40%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

29%

level

28%

Mansfield Town scores more

43%

Mansfield Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

S. McLaughlin

Mansfield Town · M

8.0

Match Events

10'

Liam Feeney

16'

A. GrantOwn goal

32'

S. McLaughlin↳ L. Akins

38'

R. Stirk↳ S. McLaughlin

45'

Ryan Delaney

45'

D. Johnson← S. McLaughlin

46'

S. Quinn

56'

J. Moore-Billam← F. Shrimpton

61'

65'

68'

77'

90+1'

J. Law← S. Quinn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeMansfield

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Total Shots16

3Corners4

15Fouls9

Shots

5Total Shots16

0On Target6

3Off Target5

2Blocked5

4Inside Box9

1Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

349Total Passes435

224Accurate Passes312

64%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

League Two: Scunthorpe 0–4 Mansfield Town

Mansfield Town beat Scunthorpe 4-0 in League Two on April 9, 2022.

Goals: A. Grant (16' o.g.), S. McLaughlin (32'), R. Stirk (38'), S. Quinn (46').

Mansfield Town controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.

Scunthorpe vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Scunthorpe 0–4 Mansfield Town