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Scunthorpe vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
CANC
00:00
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
4/18/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 45Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe29%
×Draw28%
Mansfield Town43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.02
Mansfield Town
1.30

Mansfield Town creates 27% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 141 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Mansfield Town
1.25

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Mansfield Town
1.16

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
57%
Scunthorpe or Mansfield Town
72%
Draw or Mansfield Town
71%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
11%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
64%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
27%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
8%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
73%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
37%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
40%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
29%
level
28%
Mansfield Town scores more
43%

Mansfield Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Scunthorpe host Mansfield Town

April 18, 2020: Scunthorpe take on Mansfield Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Scunthorpe host Mansfield Town at Sands Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.