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Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool — League #43 2026

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
Preview
14:00
Hartlepool
Hartlepool
9/26/2026League #43League #43 · Round 10Attis Arena
Big match
40%
Hartlepool
model favours
34%26%40%

Scunthorpe score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Scunthorpe34%
×Draw26%
Hartlepool40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.27
Hartlepool
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 26 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.80
Hartlepool
1.15

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.60
Hartlepool
1.73

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Hartlepool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
60%
Scunthorpe or Hartlepool
74%
Draw or Hartlepool
66%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
15%
Hartlepool wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
72%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
36%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
14%
Hartlepool 1+ goals
75%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
40%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
47%
Hartlepool (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.80 + Hartlepool defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hartlepool attack 1.15 + Scunthorpe defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
34%
level
26%
Hartlepool scores more
40%

Hartlepool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of Scunthorpe’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Scunthorpe’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Scunthorpe
LDWWD
Hartlepool
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool — Match Preview

Scunthorpe face Hartlepool on September 26, 2026 in this League #43 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Scunthorpe host Hartlepool at Attis Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.