Hartlepool 1–2 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Hartlepool

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Scunthorpe

M. Daly 78'

C. Roberts 70', 50' (pen)

12/26/2025

League #43 · Round 24Victoria Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hartlepool42%

×Draw22%

Scunthorpe36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HartlepoolExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.78

Hartlepool

1.92

Scunthorpe

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

1.45

creates per match

2.20

1.36

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Hartlepool

1.45

Scunthorpe

2.20

allows per match

Hartlepool

1.36

Scunthorpe

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw

64%

Hartlepool or Scunthorpe

78%

Draw or Scunthorpe

58%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+

23%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals

85%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

57%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

30%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

83%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

53%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

54%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.45 + Scunthorpe defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.92

Scunthorpe attack 2.20 + Hartlepool defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hartlepool scores more

42%

level

22%

Scunthorpe scores more

36%

Hartlepool at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Reid

50'

C. RobertsPenalty

52'

C. John

54'

L. Charman← A. Nathaniel-George

63'

T. Sellars-Fleming

65'

M. Daly← J. Hunter

70'

C. Roberts

71'

D. Howe← D. Whitehall

71'

C. Ubaezuonu← T. Sellars-Fleming

78'

88'

89'

90'

90+8'

K. Scales← C. Roberts

Hartlepool

Scunthorpe

38

21

6

3

33

25

11

10

⚽2

▼

Roberts

17

▼

Ewing

16

▼

Sellars-F

9

▼

Whitehall

12

Evans

2

▼

5

4

3

14

15

▼

Hunter

10

Campbell

18

Miley

35

▼

Nathaniel

19

Reid

Manager: Simon Nicholas Grayson

54'▲L. Charman←▼A. Nathaniel-George

65'▲M. Daly←▼J. Hunter

89'▲D. Johnson←▼J. Benn

Hartlepool substitutes

40Smith8Ferguson9Johnson11Charman22Darcy24Brown28Daly

Manager: Andrew Peter Butler

71'▲D. Howe←▼D. Whitehall

71'▲C. Ubaezuonu←▼T. Sellars-Fleming

88'▲R. Barrows←▼O. Ewing

90+8'▲K. Scales←▼C. Roberts

Scunthorpe substitutes

12Jones4Belehouan7Howe14Ubaezuonu18Brogan20Scales44Barrows

League #43: Hartlepool 1–2 Scunthorpe

Scunthorpe beat Hartlepool 2-1 in League #43 on December 26, 2025.

Goals: C. Roberts (50' pen, 70'), M. Daly (78').

The match was played at Victoria Park in Hartlepool.

Hartlepool vs Scunthorpe — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #43: Hartlepool 1–2 Scunthorpe