Scunthorpe 1–1 Hartlepool: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hartlepool

C. Wilson 49'

N. Featherstone 72' (pen)

4/30/2022

League Two · Round 45Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe40%

×Draw27%

Hartlepool34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.20

Scunthorpe

1.33

Hartlepool

1.20

Scunthorpe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 81 away

0.89

creates per match

1.05

1.35

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Hartlepool

1.05

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Hartlepool

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

66%

Scunthorpe or Hartlepool

73%

Draw or Hartlepool

60%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

18%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

74%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

38%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

15%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

70%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

34%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

54%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

40%

level

27%

Hartlepool scores more

34%

Scunthorpe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Scunthorpe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Wilson

Scunthorpe · F

7.5

Match Events

22'

30'

31'

49'

65'

67'

72'

72'

N. FeatherstonePenalty

82'

J. Hallam← C. Wilson

86'

M. Carver← O. Olomola

90+1'

Bryn Morris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeHartlepool

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots23

3Corners7

12Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots23

5On Target5

4Off Target9

1Blocked9

9Inside Box14

1Outside Box9

Passing

39%Possession61%

317Total Passes478

187Accurate Passes356

59%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

8Offsides0

League Two: Scunthorpe 1–1 Hartlepool

Scunthorpe and Hartlepool drew 1-1 in League Two on April 30, 2022.

Goals: C. Wilson (49'), N. Featherstone (72' pen).

Hartlepool controlled possession (61%) and registered 23 shots to 10.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.

Scunthorpe vs Hartlepool — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Scunthorpe 1–1 Hartlepool