Scunthorpe 3–0 Grimsby: Result & Stats | League Two

Scunthorpe

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Grimsby

Abobaker Eisa 65', 14'

R. Loft 38'

1/23/2021

League Two · Round 25Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe33%

×Draw28%

Grimsby39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.25

Scunthorpe

1.14

Grimsby

1.25

Grimsby creates 10% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 138 away

0.89

creates per match

1.15

1.35

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Grimsby

1.15

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Grimsby

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

61%

Scunthorpe or Grimsby

72%

Draw or Grimsby

67%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

14%

Grimsby wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

68%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

32%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

11%

Grimsby 1+ goals

71%

Grimsby 2+ goals

36%

Grimsby 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

46%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Grimsby attack 1.15 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

33%

level

28%

Grimsby scores more

39%

Grimsby at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Abobaker Eisa

Scunthorpe · F

8.9

Match Events

14'

29'

38'

46'

46'

G. Williams← M. Wright

46'

L. Spokes← E. Hewitt

65'

Abobaker Eisa↳ R. Loft

69'

J. Rowe← J. Clarke

72'

S. Scannell← M. Green

72'

I. Jackson← J. Hanson

74'

J. McAtee← D. Green

74'

L. Spence← J. Karacan

75'

Ryan Loft

83'

Alex Gilliead

90+4'

J. Hallam← R. Loft

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeGrimsby

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots12

3Corners4

17Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots12

5On Target4

5Off Target1

0Blocked7

7Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

296Total Passes459

158Accurate Passes311

53%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls18

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4