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Scunthorpe vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Grimsby
Grimsby
L. Waterfall 61'
C. Vernam 52'
3/7/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 37Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe33%
×Draw28%
Grimsby39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.14
Grimsby
1.25

Grimsby creates 10% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 138 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Grimsby
1.15

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Grimsby
1.38

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
61%
Scunthorpe or Grimsby
72%
Draw or Grimsby
67%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
14%
Grimsby wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
68%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
32%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
11%
Grimsby 1+ goals
71%
Grimsby 2+ goals
36%
Grimsby 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
46%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Grimsby attack 1.15 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
33%
level
28%
Grimsby scores more
39%

Grimsby at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
E. HewittGrimsbyGrimsby · M
7.9

Match Events

20'
Anthony Driscoll-Glennon
22'
Luke Waterfall
46'
M. Pollock← H. Davis
52'
C. Vernam↳ E. Hewitt
59'
J. Tilley← A. Driscoll-Glennon
61'
L. Waterfall↳ B. Clarke
64'
D. Green← L. Butroid
65'
Jacob Bedeau
74'
M. Green← B. Clarke
77'
L. Sutton← R. McArdle
81'
Levi Sutton
86'
Alex Gilliead
89'
Elliott Hewitt
90'
James Perch

Possession

51%Scunthorpe

Shots

9Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

48%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeGrimsby
Overview
51%Possession49%
9Total Shots14
7Corners4
13Fouls7
Shots
9Total Shots14
0On Target3
5Off Target5
4Blocked6
7Inside Box6
2Outside Box8
Passing
51%Possession49%
294Total Passes282
138Accurate Passes142
47%Pass Accuracy50%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
13Fouls7
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

League Two: Scunthorpe 0–2 Grimsby

Grimsby beat Scunthorpe 2-0 in League Two on March 7, 2020.

Goals: C. Vernam (52'), L. Waterfall (61').

Scunthorpe controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.