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Scunthorpe vs Chesterfield — League One 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
I. Toney 73', 37'
P. McGinn 21' (OG)
T. Anderson 90+2'
4/17/2017League OneLeague One · Round 44Glanford Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Scunthorpe40%
×Draw25%
Chesterfield36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.52
Chesterfield
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 21 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
1.38
Chesterfield
1.14

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.72
Chesterfield
1.67

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Chesterfield+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
64%
Scunthorpe or Chesterfield
75%
Draw or Chesterfield
60%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
19%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
78%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
45%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
20%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
76%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
42%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
53%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 1.38 + Chesterfield defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chesterfield attack 1.14 + Scunthorpe defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
40%
level
25%
Chesterfield scores more
36%

Scunthorpe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Scunthorpe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
P. McGinnOwn goal
34'
R. Mitchell← R. Simons
37'
I. Toney
68'
D. Jones← D. Faupala
69'
K. van Veen← P. Madden
73'
I. Toney↳ K. van Veen
75'
S. Mantom← J. Ness
82'
C. Davies← I. Toney
83'
Scott Wiseman
85'
C. Wakefield← J. Rowley
90+2'
T. Anderson↳ D. Gardner

Possession

52%Scunthorpe

Shots

18Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeChesterfield
Overview
52%Possession48%
18Total Shots8
7Corners2
7Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots8
8On Target2
8Off Target4
2Blocked2
13Inside Box3
6Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
7Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Scunthorpe vs Chesterfield

Scunthorpe beat Chesterfield 3-1 in League One on April 17, 2017.

Goals: P. McGinn (21' o.g.), I. Toney (37', 73'), T. Anderson (90+2').

Scunthorpe controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Glanford Park in Scunthorpe.