Chesterfield 4–1 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Scunthorpe

K. Tshimanga 86'

J. King 83'

A. Asante 45+1'

A. Dobra 27'

C. Wilson 20'

1/1/2023

League #43 · Round 26Technique Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chesterfield51%

×Draw19%

Scunthorpe30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.85

Chesterfield

2.45

Scunthorpe

1.85

Chesterfield creates 32% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

2.20

1.50

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Chesterfield

2.50

Scunthorpe

2.20

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.50

Scunthorpe

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chesterfield+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

70%

Chesterfield or Scunthorpe

81%

Draw or Scunthorpe

49%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

31%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

91%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

70%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

44%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

84%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

55%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

63%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 2.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 2.50 + Scunthorpe defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.45

Scunthorpe attack 2.20 + Chesterfield defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chesterfield scores more

51%

level

19%

Scunthorpe scores more

30%

Chesterfield at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

27'

36'

45+1'

50'

61'

M. Carver← J. Butterfield

73'

T. Akinola← A. Asante

76'

K. Tshimanga← J. Quigley

82'

J. Uchegbulam← L. Mandeville

82'

H. Poulter← C. Wilson

83'

J. King

86'

K. Tshimanga

Chesterfield

Scunthorpe

1

6

15

12

19

▼

23

8

30

20

⚽

▼

22

13

1

5

21

33

35

20

⚽

King

26

Oldaker

17

⚽

Dobra

19

⚽

▼

Asante

7

▼

Mandevill

27

▼

Quigley

Manager: P. Cook

73'▲T. Akinola←▼A. Asante

76'▲K. Tshimanga←▼J. Quigley

82'▲J. Uchegbulam←▼L. Mandeville

Chesterfield substitutes

4Akinola9Tshimanga18Uchegbulam12Williams28Banks

Manager: M. Nelson

61'▲M. Carver←▼J. Butterfield

82'▲H. Poulter←▼C. Wilson

Scunthorpe substitutes

11Carver37Poulter3O'Malley14Young28Gallimore