Scotland 2–1 Rep. Of Ireland: Result & Stats

Scotland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rep. Of Ireland

R. Christie 82' (pen)

J. Hendry 49'

J. Egan 18'

9/24/2022

UEFA Nations League · League B - 5Hampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Scotland58%

×Draw24%

Rep. Of Ireland17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScotlandExpected goals in this matchRep. Of Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.78

Scotland

1.66

Rep. Of Ireland

0.78

Scotland creates 113% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

0.73

0.83

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Scotland

1.50

Rep. Of Ireland

0.73

allows per match

Scotland

0.83

Rep. Of Ireland

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland+0.00on par

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Scotland or draw

83%

Scotland or Rep. Of Ireland

76%

Draw or Rep. Of Ireland

42%

Winning margin

Scotland wins by 2+

32%

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Scotland 1+ goals

81%

Scotland 2+ goals

49%

Scotland 3+ goals

23%

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

54%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

18%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Scotland (draw refunded)

77%

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland attack 1.50 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.66

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.73 + Scotland defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Scotland scores more

58%

level

24%

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

17%

Scotland at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Scotland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Hendry

Scotland · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

J. Egan↳ N. Collins

42'

G. Taylor← K. Tierney

45+1'

Josh Cullen

49'

J. Hendry↳ R. Christie

59'

A. Ralston← A. Hickey

59'

R. Fraser← S. Armstrong

60'

C. Ogbene← M. Obafemi

63'

Scott McKenna

73'

John Egan

76'

S. Coleman← M. Doherty

76'

A. Browne← J. Molumby

76'

C. Robinson← T. Parrott

81'

Séamus Coleman

82'

R. ChristiePenalty

83'

R. Brady← J. McClean

85'

C. Adams← L. Dykes

85'

K. McLean← R. Christie

87'

87'

90+5'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScotlandRep.

Overview

61%Possession39%

14Total Shots9

9Corners3

13Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots9

3On Target4

5Off Target3

6Blocked2

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

540Total Passes339

461Accurate Passes277

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls17

3Yellow Cards5

0Offsides3