Rep. Of Ireland 3–0 Scotland: Result & Stats

Rep. Of Ireland

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Scotland

M. Obafemi 51'

T. Parrott 28'

A. Browne 20'

6/11/2022

UEFA Nations League · League B - 3Aviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rep. Of Ireland34%

×Draw29%

Scotland37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rep. Of IrelandExpected goals in this matchScotland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.11

Rep. Of Ireland

1.06

Scotland

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

0.90

creates per match

1.22

1.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Rep. Of Ireland

0.90

Scotland

1.22

allows per match

Rep. Of Ireland

1.00

Scotland

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Scotland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rep. Of Ireland ↓

Scotland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rep. Of Ireland or draw

63%

Rep. Of Ireland or Scotland

71%

Draw or Scotland

66%

Winning margin

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

13%

Scotland wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

65%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

29%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

9%

Scotland 1+ goals

67%

Scotland 2+ goals

30%

Scotland 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

48%

Scotland (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rep. Of Ireland at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Scotland away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.90 + Scotland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Scotland attack 1.22 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

34%

level

29%

Scotland scores more

37%

Scotland at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Scotland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

M. Obafemi

Rep. Of Ireland · F

8.2

Match Events

20'

A. Browne↳ S. Duffy

28'

T. Parrott↳ M. Obafemi

44'

Ryan Christie

46'

B. Gilmour← J. Hendry

51'

M. Obafemi↳ T. Parrott

56'

S. Hogan← M. Obafemi

59'

J. Brown← R. Christie

59'

S. Armstrong← J. McGinn

59'

R. Stewart← C. Adams

60'

Shane Duffy

72'

C. Hourihane← J. Knight

74'

J. Souttar← S. McKenna

84'

J. Hendrick← J. Molumby

85'

C. Robinson← T. Parrott

88'

Callum Robinson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Rep.Scotland

Overview

43%Possession57%

6Total Shots9

6Corners8

10Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots9

5On Target2

0Off Target3

1Blocked4

4Inside Box6

2Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

398Total Passes515

310Accurate Passes427

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1