Scotland 2–3 Poland: Result & Stats

Scotland

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Poland

S. McTominay 76'

B. Gilmour 46'

N. Zalewski 90+7' (pen)

R. Lewandowski 44' (pen)

S. Szymański 8'

9/5/2024

UEFA Nations League · League A - 1Hampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Scotland56%

×Draw24%

Poland21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScotlandExpected goals in this matchPoland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.96

Scotland

1.75

Poland

0.96

Scotland creates 82% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

1.09

0.83

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Scotland

1.50

Poland

1.09

allows per match

Scotland

0.83

Poland

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland+0.00on par

Poland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland ↓

Poland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Scotland or draw

79%

Scotland or Poland

76%

Draw or Poland

44%

Winning margin

Scotland wins by 2+

31%

Poland wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Scotland 1+ goals

83%

Scotland 2+ goals

52%

Scotland 3+ goals

25%

Poland 1+ goals

62%

Poland 2+ goals

25%

Poland 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Scotland (draw refunded)

73%

Poland (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Poland away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland attack 1.50 + Poland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Poland attack 1.09 + Scotland defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Scotland scores more

56%

level

24%

Poland scores more

21%

Scotland at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Scotland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Lewandowski

Poland · F

7.9

Match Events

8'

S. Szymański↳ R. Lewandowski

24'

Scott McTominayGoal cancelled

35'

Paweł Dawidowicz

44'

R. LewandowskiPenalty

46'

S. Walukiewicz← J. Kiwior

46'

B. Gilmour

52'

Nicola Zalewski

71'

R. Gauld← R. Christie

71'

B. Doak← K. McLean

71'

L. Shankland← L. Dykes

72'

A. Buksa← R. Lewandowski

72'

J. Piotrowski← K. Piątek

76'

S. McTominay↳ A. Ralston

82'

L. Morgan← B. Gilmour

82'

B. Slisz← S. Szymański

82'

J. Moder← P. Zieliński

83'

Bartosz Slisz

90+7'

N. ZalewskiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScotlandPoland

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots10

2Corners3

13Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target3

6Off Target6

2Blocked1

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

563Total Passes402

499Accurate Passes339

89%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls18

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2