Poland 1–2 Scotland: Result & Stats

Poland

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Scotland

K. Piątkowski 59'

A. Robertson 90+3'

J. McGinn 3'

11/18/2024

UEFA Nations League · League A - 6Stadion Narodowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Poland32%

×Draw26%

Scotland42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PolandExpected goals in this matchScotland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.43

Poland

1.20

Scotland

1.43

Scotland creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.18

creates per match

1.22

1.64

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Poland

1.18

Scotland

1.22

allows per match

Poland

1.64

Scotland

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland+0.00on par

Scotland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Scotland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Poland or draw

58%

Poland or Scotland

74%

Draw or Scotland

68%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+

13%

Scotland wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals

70%

Poland 2+ goals

34%

Poland 3+ goals

12%

Scotland 1+ goals

76%

Scotland 2+ goals

42%

Scotland 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)

43%

Scotland (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Scotland away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 1.18 + Scotland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Scotland attack 1.22 + Poland defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Poland scores more

32%

level

26%

Scotland scores more

42%

Scotland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Scotland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

K. Piątkowski

Poland · D

8.3

Match Events

3'

J. McGinn↳ B. Doak

30'

Kenny McLean

46'

B. Slisz← J. Moder

59'

K. Piątkowski↳ P. Zieliński

63'

T. Puchacz← J. Kamiński

66'

R. Christie← B. Doak

66'

L. Shankland← L. Dykes

70'

Ryan Christie

75'

K. Urbański← K. Świderski

76'

R. Gauld← S. McTominay

76'

N. Devlin← A. Ralston

79'

Piotr Zieliński

87'

S. Armstrong← B. Gilmour

90+3'

Adam Buksa

90+5'

John McGinn

90+3'

A. Robertson↳ J. Souttar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PolandScotland

Overview

42%Possession58%

19Total Shots16

4Corners5

13Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots16

6On Target7

8Off Target6

5Blocked3

12Inside Box13

7Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

398Total Passes541

327Accurate Passes457

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1