Scotland 0–2 Czechia: Result & Stats

Scotland

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Czechia

P. Schick 52', 42'

6/14/2021

Euro Championship · Group D - 1Hampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Scotland41%

×Draw24%

Czechia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScotlandExpected goals in this matchCzechia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.40

Scotland

1.56

Czechia

1.40

Scotland creates 11% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.63

creates per match

1.30

1.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Scotland

1.63

Czechia

1.30

allows per match

Scotland

1.50

Czechia

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland+0.00on par

Czechia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland ↓

Czechia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Scotland or draw

66%

Scotland or Czechia

76%

Draw or Czechia

59%

Winning margin

Scotland wins by 2+

20%

Czechia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Scotland 1+ goals

79%

Scotland 2+ goals

46%

Scotland 3+ goals

21%

Czechia 1+ goals

75%

Czechia 2+ goals

41%

Czechia 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Scotland (draw refunded)

55%

Czechia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Czechia away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland attack 1.63 + Czechia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Czechia attack 1.30 + Scotland defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Scotland scores more

41%

level

24%

Czechia scores more

34%

Scotland at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Scotland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Patrik Schick

Czechia · F

8.6

Match Events

42'

P. Schick↳ V. Coufal

46'

C. Adams← R. Christie

52'

P. Schick↳ T. Souček

67'

C. McGregor← J. Hendry

67'

R. Fraser← S. Armstrong

67'

T. Holeš← A. Král

72'

M. Vydra← L. Masopust

72'

A. Hložek← J. Jankto

79'

J. Forrest← S. ODonnell

79'

K. Nisbet← L. Dykes

87'

M. Krmenčík← P. Schick

87'

P. Ševčík← V. Darida

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScotlandCzechia

Overview

58%Possession42%

19Total Shots10

6Corners6

6Fouls6

Shots

19Total Shots10

4On Target7

4Off Target3

11Blocked0

14Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

469Total Passes346

359Accurate Passes239

77%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls6

1Offsides2