Czechia 1–2 Scotland: Result & Stats

Czechia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Scotland

Jakub Pesek 11'

Ryan Christie 52' (pen)

Lyndon Dykes 27'

9/7/2020

UEFA Nations League · League B - 2Andrův stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Czechia39%

×Draw26%

Scotland35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CzechiaExpected goals in this matchScotland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.31

Czechia

1.41

Scotland

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.60

creates per match

1.22

1.40

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Czechia

1.60

Scotland

1.22

allows per match

Czechia

1.40

Scotland

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Czechia+0.00on par

Scotland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Czechia ↓

Scotland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Czechia or draw

65%

Czechia or Scotland

74%

Draw or Scotland

61%

Winning margin

Czechia wins by 2+

18%

Scotland wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Czechia 1+ goals

76%

Czechia 2+ goals

41%

Czechia 3+ goals

17%

Scotland 1+ goals

73%

Scotland 2+ goals

38%

Scotland 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Czechia (draw refunded)

53%

Scotland (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Czechia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Scotland away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Czechia attack 1.60 + Scotland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Scotland attack 1.22 + Czechia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Czechia scores more

39%

level

26%

Scotland scores more

35%

Czechia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Czechia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Liam Cooper

Scotland · D

7.3

Match Events

11'

Jakub Pesek↳ Stanislav Tecl

27'

Lyndon Dykes↳ Liam Palmer

48'

Stuart Armstrong

51'

Tomáš Malinský

52'

Ryan ChristiePenalty

55'

Radim Breite← Lukas Budinsky

64'

Andrew Robertson

67'

Callum Paterson← Lyndon Dykes

71'

John McGinn← John Fleck

76'

Roman Potocny← Jakub Pesek

79'

Scott Mckenna

80'

Callum McGregor← Stuart Armstrong

81'

Antonín Růsek← Marek Havlík

85'

Liam Palmer

90+2'

Adam Janos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CzechiaScotland

Overview

50%Possession50%

19Total Shots6

8Corners0

17Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots6

4On Target3

11Off Target1

4Blocked2

8Inside Box5

11Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

385Total Passes403

299Accurate Passes319

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides9