Scotland 2–1 Cyprus: Result & Stats

Scotland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cyprus

O. Burke 89'

A. Robertson 61'

I. Kousoulos 87'

6/8/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Hampden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Scotland44%

×Draw23%

Cyprus33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScotlandExpected goals in this matchCyprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.55

Scotland

1.81

Cyprus

1.55

Scotland creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.63

creates per match

1.60

1.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Scotland

1.63

Cyprus

1.60

allows per match

Scotland

1.50

Cyprus

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland+0.00on par

Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland ↓

Cyprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Scotland or draw

67%

Scotland or Cyprus

77%

Draw or Cyprus

56%

Winning margin

Scotland wins by 2+

24%

Cyprus wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Scotland 1+ goals

84%

Scotland 2+ goals

54%

Scotland 3+ goals

27%

Cyprus 1+ goals

79%

Cyprus 2+ goals

46%

Cyprus 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Scotland (draw refunded)

57%

Cyprus (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Cyprus away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland attack 1.63 + Cyprus defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Cyprus attack 1.60 + Scotland defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Scotland scores more

44%

level

23%

Cyprus scores more

33%

Scotland at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Scotland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Fraser

Scotland · F

8.5

Match Events

26'

Nicholas Ioannou

45'

Callum McGregor

61'

A. Robertson↳ J. McGinn

66'

A. Georgiou← M. Ioannou

70'

I. Kosti← M. Špoljarić

73'

O. Burke← E. Brophy

74'

Kostakis Artymatas

79'

S. McTominay← J. McGinn

80'

I. Pittas← A. Makris

87'

I. Kousoulos↳ A. Georgiou

88'

S. Armstrong← C. McGregor

89'

O. Burke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScotlandCyprus

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots10

9Corners5

5Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target6

6Off Target2

4Blocked2

8Inside Box4

8Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

512Total Passes466

441Accurate Passes381

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1