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Cyprus vs Scotland — Euro Championship 2024

Cyprus
Cyprus
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Scotland
Scotland
G. Efrem 47'
J. McGinn 53'
R. Christie 12'
11/16/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 9Neo GSP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cyprus48%
×Draw22%
Scotland30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cyprus
1.94
Scotland
1.50

Cyprus creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Cyprus
1.50
Scotland
0.75

allows per match

Cyprus
2.25
Scotland
2.38

finishing

Cyprus+0.00on par
Scotland+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cyprus ↓

Scotland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Cyprus or draw
70%
Cyprus or Scotland
78%
Draw or Scotland
52%

Winning margin

Cyprus wins by 2+
27%
Scotland wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cyprus 1+ goals
86%
Cyprus 2+ goals
58%
Cyprus 3+ goals
30%
Scotland 1+ goals
78%
Scotland 2+ goals
44%
Scotland 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Cyprus (draw refunded)
61%
Scotland (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cyprus at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Scotland away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cyprus attack 1.50 + Scotland defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.94

Scotland attack 0.75 + Cyprus defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cyprus scores more
48%
level
22%
Scotland scores more
30%

Cyprus at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cyprus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
J. McGinnScotlandScotland · F
8.1

Match Events

12'
R. Christie↳ J. McGinn
14'
Callum McGregor
42'
G. Kastanos← A. Karo
47'
Scott Mckenna
47'
G. Efrem
53'
J. McGinn↳ G. Taylor
56'
John McGinn
58'
Jason Dimitriou
58'
Greg Taylor
62'
O. McBurnie← S. Naismith
72'
O. Burke← J. Forrest
74'
M. Špoljarić← G. Efrem
77'
D. Theodorou← C. Kyriakou
90'
Liam Palmer
90+2'
M. Devlin← R. Christie

Possession

58%Cyprus

Shots

12Cyprus

Pass accuracy

52%Cyprus

Statistics

CyprusScotland
Overview
58%Possession42%
12Total Shots8
9Corners8
12Fouls18
Shots
12Total Shots8
3On Target4
6Off Target0
3Blocked4
8Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
505Total Passes367
418Accurate Passes282
83%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls18
1Yellow Cards5
1Offsides1

Euro Championship: Cyprus 1–2 Scotland

Scotland beat Cyprus 2-1 in Euro Championship on November 16, 2019.

Goals: R. Christie (12'), G. Efrem (47'), J. McGinn (53').

Cyprus controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Neo GSP in Levkosía.