Scotland U19 1–3 France U19: Result & Stats

Scotland U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

France U19

M. Carse 78' (pen)

E. Diop 30'

M. Tel 28' (pen), 20'

11/22/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Somerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Scotland U1938%

×Draw23%

France U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland U19Expected goals in this matchFrance U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.63

Scotland U19

1.60

France U19

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.86

creates per match

1.75

1.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Scotland U19

1.86

France U19

1.75

allows per match

Scotland U19

1.50

France U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland U19+0.00on par

France U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland U19 ↓

France U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Scotland U19 or draw

61%

Scotland U19 or France U19

77%

Draw or France U19

62%

Winning margin

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

19%

France U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Scotland U19 1+ goals

80%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

47%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

22%

France U19 1+ goals

80%

France U19 2+ goals

48%

France U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

49%

France U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland U19 at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

France U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland U19 attack 1.86 + France U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

France U19 attack 1.75 + Scotland U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Scotland U19 scores more

38%

level

23%

France U19 scores more

39%

France U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "France U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Tel

28'

M. TelPenalty

29'

30'

49'

54'

56'

69'

72'

B. Wales← R. Ure

72'

D. Mokwa← M. Tel

73'

N. Buayi-Kiala← L. Ugochukwu

78'

M. CarsePenalty

79'

R. Risser

79'

M. Carse

81'

R. Duncan

84'

C. Doumbia← V. Muntu Wa Mungu

84'

W. Odobert← E. Diop

86'

Y. El Hannach

86'

B. Hepburn← A. Mebude

87'

90'

90+2'

90+2'

90+1'

Y. Koré← A. Kari

Scotland

France

1

15

2

4

14

▼

Mungu

8

▼

Ugochukwu

10

Fayad

6

▼

Kari

19

⚽

▼

Diop

9

⚽2

▼

12

1

2

3

16

5

8

⚽

Carse

7

Duncan

10

Adam

9

▼

Pollock

11

▼

Mebude

15

▼

Ure

Manager: B. Stark

72'▲B. Wales←▼R. Ure

86'▲B. Hepburn←▼A. Mebude

87'▲M. Aiken←▼F. Pollock

Scotland U19 substitutes

20Wales13Hepburn19Aiken17Allan18Reid6Towler14Offord12McFarlane

Manager: L. Rouxel

72'▲D. Mokwa←▼M. Tel

73'▲N. Buayi-Kiala←▼L. Ugochukwu

84'▲C. Doumbia←▼V. Muntu Wa Mungu

84'▲W. Odobert←▼E. Diop

90+1'▲Y. Koré←▼A. Kari

France U19 substitutes

18Mokwa17Buayi-Kiala3Doumbia11Odobert5Koré13Acapandié16Patouillet

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Scotland U19 1–3 France U19

France U19 beat Scotland U19 3-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 22, 2022.

Goals: M. Tel (20', 28' pen), E. Diop (30'), M. Carse (78' pen).

The match was played at Somerset Park in Ayr.

Scotland U19 vs France U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Scotland U19 1–3 France U19