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France U19 vs Scotland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

France U19
France U19
CANC
13:00
Scotland U19
Scotland U19
9/2/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 2Plaine des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

France U1948%
×Draw22%
Scotland U1930%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

France U19
1.94
Scotland U19
1.48

France U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

France U19
2.54
Scotland U19
2.33

allows per match

France U19
0.62
Scotland U19
1.33

finishing

France U19+0.00on par
Scotland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

France U19 ↓

Scotland U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

France U19 or draw
70%
France U19 or Scotland U19
78%
Draw or Scotland U19
52%

Winning margin

France U19 wins by 2+
27%
Scotland U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

France U19 1+ goals
86%
France U19 2+ goals
58%
France U19 3+ goals
30%
Scotland U19 1+ goals
77%
Scotland U19 2+ goals
43%
Scotland U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

France U19 (draw refunded)
62%
Scotland U19 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

France U19 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Scotland U19 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

France U19 attack 2.54 + Scotland U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.94

Scotland U19 attack 2.33 + France U19 defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

France U19 scores more
48%
level
22%
Scotland U19 scores more
30%

France U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "France U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

France U19 face Scotland U19 (UEFA U19 Championship)

UEFA U19 Championship returns with France U19 hosting Scotland U19. Match starts September 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

France U19 host Scotland U19 at Plaine des Sports.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.