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Scotland Mabvuku vs Kwekwe United — Premier Soccer League 2026

Scotland Mabvuku
Scotland Mabvuku
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kwekwe United
Kwekwe United
6/15/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 15Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Scotland Mabvuku77%
×Draw17%
Kwekwe United6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scotland Mabvuku
2.06
Kwekwe United
0.40

Scotland Mabvuku creates 415% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 17 away

creates per match

Scotland Mabvuku
1.37
Kwekwe United
0.35

allows per match

Scotland Mabvuku
0.44
Kwekwe United
2.76

finishing

Scotland Mabvuku+0.00on par
Kwekwe United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland Mabvuku ↓

Kwekwe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Scotland Mabvuku or draw
94%
Scotland Mabvuku or Kwekwe United
83%
Draw or Kwekwe United
23%

Winning margin

Scotland Mabvuku wins by 2+
51%
Kwekwe United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Scotland Mabvuku 1+ goals
87%
Scotland Mabvuku 2+ goals
61%
Scotland Mabvuku 3+ goals
34%
Kwekwe United 1+ goals
33%
Kwekwe United 2+ goals
6%
Kwekwe United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Scotland Mabvuku (draw refunded)
93%
Kwekwe United (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland Mabvuku at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.44 · 27 matches

Kwekwe United away — creates 0.35, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland Mabvuku attack 1.37 + Kwekwe United defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.06

Kwekwe United attack 0.35 + Scotland Mabvuku defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Scotland Mabvuku scores more
77%
level
17%
Kwekwe United scores more
6%

Scotland Mabvuku at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Scotland Mabvuku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Scotland Mabvuku vs Kwekwe United

Scotland Mabvuku beat Kwekwe United 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Rufaro Stadium in Harare.