Kwekwe United 1–5 Scotland Mabvuku: Result & Stats

Kwekwe United

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Scotland Mabvuku

11/2/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kwekwe United11%

×Draw23%

Scotland Mabvuku66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kwekwe UnitedExpected goals in this matchScotland Mabvuku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.53

1.69

Kwekwe United

0.53

Scotland Mabvuku

1.69

Scotland Mabvuku creates 219% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 28 away

0.56

creates per match

1.57

1.81

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Kwekwe United

0.56

Scotland Mabvuku

1.57

allows per match

Kwekwe United

1.81

Scotland Mabvuku

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kwekwe United+0.00on par

Scotland Mabvuku+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kwekwe United ↓

Scotland Mabvuku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–118%

0–216%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kwekwe United or draw

34%

Kwekwe United or Scotland Mabvuku

77%

Draw or Scotland Mabvuku

89%

Winning margin

Kwekwe United wins by 2+

2%

Scotland Mabvuku wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Kwekwe United 1+ goals

41%

Kwekwe United 2+ goals

10%

Kwekwe United 3+ goals

2%

Scotland Mabvuku 1+ goals

82%

Scotland Mabvuku 2+ goals

50%

Scotland Mabvuku 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Kwekwe United (draw refunded)

15%

Scotland Mabvuku (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kwekwe United at home — creates 0.56, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Scotland Mabvuku away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kwekwe United attack 0.56 + Scotland Mabvuku defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.53

Scotland Mabvuku attack 1.57 + Kwekwe United defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kwekwe United scores more

11%

level

23%

Scotland Mabvuku scores more

66%

Scotland Mabvuku at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Scotland Mabvuku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff