Scotland Mabvuku 0–0 Green Fuel: Result & Stats

Scotland Mabvuku

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Green Fuel

11/8/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Scotland Mabvuku57%

×Draw29%

Green Fuel14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Scotland MabvukuExpected goals in this matchGreen Fuel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.49

Scotland Mabvuku

1.31

Green Fuel

0.49

Scotland Mabvuku creates 167% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 51 away

1.37

creates per match

0.55

0.44

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Scotland Mabvuku

1.37

Green Fuel

0.55

allows per match

Scotland Mabvuku

0.44

Green Fuel

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scotland Mabvuku+0.00on par

Green Fuel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scotland Mabvuku ↓

Green Fuel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Scotland Mabvuku or draw

86%

Scotland Mabvuku or Green Fuel

71%

Draw or Green Fuel

43%

Winning margin

Scotland Mabvuku wins by 2+

28%

Green Fuel wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Scotland Mabvuku 1+ goals

73%

Scotland Mabvuku 2+ goals

38%

Scotland Mabvuku 3+ goals

14%

Green Fuel 1+ goals

39%

Green Fuel 2+ goals

9%

Green Fuel 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Scotland Mabvuku (draw refunded)

80%

Green Fuel (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scotland Mabvuku at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.44 · 27 matches

Green Fuel away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scotland Mabvuku attack 1.37 + Green Fuel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Green Fuel attack 0.55 + Scotland Mabvuku defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Scotland Mabvuku scores more

57%

level

29%

Green Fuel scores more

14%

Scotland Mabvuku at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Scotland Mabvuku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff