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Green Fuel vs Scotland Mabvuku — Premier Soccer League 2026

Green Fuel
Green Fuel
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Scotland Mabvuku
Scotland Mabvuku
6/18/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 16GreenFuel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Green Fuel25%
×Draw31%
Scotland Mabvuku44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Fuel
0.79
Scotland Mabvuku
1.16

Scotland Mabvuku creates 47% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 28 away

creates per match

Green Fuel
1.08
Scotland Mabvuku
1.57

allows per match

Green Fuel
0.75
Scotland Mabvuku
0.50

finishing

Green Fuel+0.00on par
Scotland Mabvuku+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Fuel ↓

Scotland Mabvuku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Green Fuel or draw
56%
Green Fuel or Scotland Mabvuku
69%
Draw or Scotland Mabvuku
75%

Winning margin

Green Fuel wins by 2+
8%
Scotland Mabvuku wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Green Fuel 1+ goals
55%
Green Fuel 2+ goals
19%
Green Fuel 3+ goals
5%
Scotland Mabvuku 1+ goals
69%
Scotland Mabvuku 2+ goals
32%
Scotland Mabvuku 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Green Fuel (draw refunded)
36%
Scotland Mabvuku (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Fuel at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.75 · 51 matches

Scotland Mabvuku away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Fuel attack 1.08 + Scotland Mabvuku defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.79

Scotland Mabvuku attack 1.57 + Green Fuel defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Green Fuel scores more
25%
level
31%
Scotland Mabvuku scores more
44%

Scotland Mabvuku at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Scotland Mabvuku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Green Fuel vs Scotland Mabvuku

Green Fuel and Scotland Mabvuku drew 2-2 in Premier Soccer League on June 18, 2025.

The match was played at GreenFuel Arena in Chisumbanje.