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SCM Gloria Buzău vs Oţelul — Liga I 2018

SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Oţelul
Oţelul
3/31/2025Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 2Stadionul Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SCM Gloria Buzău28%
×Draw30%
Oţelul42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCM Gloria Buzău
0.87
Oţelul
1.13

Oţelul creates 30% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 58 away

creates per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
0.60
Oţelul
1.10

allows per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.15
Oţelul
1.14

finishing

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par
Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCM Gloria Buzău ↓

Oţelul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

SCM Gloria Buzău or draw
58%
SCM Gloria Buzău or Oţelul
70%
Draw or Oţelul
72%

Winning margin

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
9%
Oţelul wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
58%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
22%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
6%
Oţelul 1+ goals
68%
Oţelul 2+ goals
31%
Oţelul 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
40%
Oţelul (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCM Gloria Buzău at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Oţelul away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.60 + Oţelul defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.87

Oţelul attack 1.10 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
28%
level
30%
Oţelul scores more
42%

Oţelul at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: SCM Gloria Buzău 0–2 Oţelul

Oţelul beat SCM Gloria Buzău 2-0 in Liga I on March 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Gloria in Buzău.