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Oţelul vs SCM Gloria Buzău — Liga I 2018

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
2/1/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 24Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Oţelul55%
×Draw24%
SCM Gloria Buzău21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
1.71
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.96

Oţelul creates 78% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 21 away

creates per match

Oţelul
1.18
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.86

allows per match

Oţelul
1.05
SCM Gloria Buzău
2.24

finishing

Oţelul+0.00on par
SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
79%
Oţelul or SCM Gloria Buzău
76%
Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău
45%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
30%
SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
82%
Oţelul 2+ goals
51%
Oţelul 3+ goals
24%
SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
62%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
25%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
72%
SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.18 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.71

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.86 + Oţelul defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Oţelul scores more
55%
level
24%
SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
21%

Oţelul at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Oţelul 2–1 SCM Gloria Buzău

Oţelul beat SCM Gloria Buzău 2-1 in Liga I on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Oţelul in Galaţi.