Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SCM Gloria Buzău vs FC Politehnica Timisoara — Liga II 2018

SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
11/5/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 11Stadionul Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

SCM Gloria Buzău54%
×Draw26%
FC Politehnica Timisoara21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.52
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.83

SCM Gloria Buzău creates 83% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 70 away

creates per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.82
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.83

allows per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
0.83
FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.23

finishing

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par
FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCM Gloria Buzău ↓

FC Politehnica Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

SCM Gloria Buzău or draw
79%
SCM Gloria Buzău or FC Politehnica Timisoara
74%
Draw or FC Politehnica Timisoara
46%

Winning margin

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
28%
FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
78%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
45%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
20%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
56%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
20%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
72%
FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCM Gloria Buzău at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.82 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 0.83 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
54%
level
26%
FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
21%

SCM Gloria Buzău at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SCM Gloria Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SCM Gloria Buzău 0 – 1 FC Politehnica Timisoara

FC Politehnica Timisoara beat SCM Gloria Buzău 1-0 in Liga II on November 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Gloria in Buzău.