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FC Politehnica Timisoara vs SCM Gloria Buzău — Liga II 2018

FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
8/15/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 3Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara35%
×Draw28%
SCM Gloria Buzău37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.17
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 66 away

creates per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.07
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.35

allows per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.04
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.26

finishing

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par
SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Politehnica Timisoara ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Politehnica Timisoara or draw
63%
FC Politehnica Timisoara or SCM Gloria Buzău
72%
Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău
65%

Winning margin

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
15%
SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
69%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
33%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
11%
SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
70%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
34%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
49%
SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Politehnica Timisoara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 1.07 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.35 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
35%
level
28%
SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
37%

SCM Gloria Buzău at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "SCM Gloria Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: FC Politehnica Timisoara 1–1 SCM Gloria Buzău

FC Politehnica Timisoara and SCM Gloria Buzău drew 1-1 in Liga II on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu in Timişoara.