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SCM Gloria Buzău vs CFR 1907 Cluj — Liga I 2018

SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
11/1/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 15Stadionul Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SCM Gloria Buzău22%
×Draw29%
CFR 1907 Cluj49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCM Gloria Buzău
0.77
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.31

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 70% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 154 away

creates per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
0.60
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.47

allows per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.15
CFR 1907 Cluj
0.95

finishing

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par
CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCM Gloria Buzău ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SCM Gloria Buzău or draw
51%
SCM Gloria Buzău or CFR 1907 Cluj
71%
Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj
78%

Winning margin

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
7%
CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
54%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
18%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
4%
CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
73%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
38%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
31%
CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCM Gloria Buzău at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.60 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.77

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
22%
level
29%
CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
49%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: SCM Gloria Buzău 0–1 CFR 1907 Cluj

CFR 1907 Cluj beat SCM Gloria Buzău 1-0 in Liga I on November 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Gloria in Buzău.