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CFR 1907 Cluj vs SCM Gloria Buzău — Liga I 2018

CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
3/9/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 30Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj66%
×Draw20%
SCM Gloria Buzău14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR 1907 Cluj
2.03
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.80

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 154% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 21 away

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.81
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.86

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
0.74
SCM Gloria Buzău
2.24

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par
SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw
86%
CFR 1907 Cluj or SCM Gloria Buzău
80%
Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău
34%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
41%
SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
87%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
60%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
33%
SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
55%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
19%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
83%
SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.03

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.86 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
66%
level
20%
SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
14%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: CFR 1907 Cluj 6–0 SCM Gloria Buzău

CFR 1907 Cluj beat SCM Gloria Buzău 6-0 in Liga I on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj-Napoca.