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SCM Gloria Buzău vs Arges Pitesti — Liga II 2018

SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
CANC
08:00
Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
5/2/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

SCM Gloria Buzău47%
×Draw28%
Arges Pitesti25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.37
Arges Pitesti
0.93

SCM Gloria Buzău creates 47% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 62 away

creates per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
1.82
Arges Pitesti
1.03

allows per match

SCM Gloria Buzău
0.83
Arges Pitesti
0.92

finishing

SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par
Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SCM Gloria Buzău ↓

Arges Pitesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SCM Gloria Buzău or draw
75%
SCM Gloria Buzău or Arges Pitesti
72%
Draw or Arges Pitesti
53%

Winning margin

SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
22%
Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
75%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
40%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
16%
Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
61%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
24%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
65%
Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SCM Gloria Buzău at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.82 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.37

Arges Pitesti attack 1.03 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
47%
level
28%
Arges Pitesti scores more
25%

SCM Gloria Buzău at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SCM Gloria Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SCM Gloria Buzău host Arges Pitesti

May 2, 2020: SCM Gloria Buzău take on Arges Pitesti in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.