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Arges Pitesti vs SCM Gloria Buzău — Liga II 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
10/28/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 14Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Arges Pitesti46%
×Draw26%
SCM Gloria Buzău27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.44
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.04

Arges Pitesti creates 38% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 66 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.61
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.35

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.73
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.26

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
73%
Arges Pitesti or SCM Gloria Buzău
74%
Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău
54%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
23%
SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
76%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
42%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
18%
SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
65%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
28%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
63%
SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 1.35 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
46%
level
26%
SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
27%

Arges Pitesti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arges Pitesti vs SCM Gloria Buzău

Arges Pitesti beat SCM Gloria Buzău 3-1 in Liga II on October 28, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Nicolae Dobrin in Piteşti.