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Schruns vs Lustenau — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Schruns
Schruns
FT
1 – 0
Lustenau
Lustenau
10/23/2021Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 17Sportplatz Golm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Schruns28%
×Draw23%
Lustenau49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schruns
1.35
Lustenau
1.85

Lustenau creates 37% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 73 away

creates per match

Schruns
1.19
Lustenau
1.68

allows per match

Schruns
2.03
Lustenau
1.52

finishing

Schruns+0.00on par
Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schruns ↓

Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Schruns or draw
51%
Schruns or Lustenau
77%
Draw or Lustenau
72%

Winning margin

Schruns wins by 2+
12%
Lustenau wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Schruns 1+ goals
74%
Schruns 2+ goals
39%
Schruns 3+ goals
15%
Lustenau 1+ goals
84%
Lustenau 2+ goals
55%
Lustenau 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Schruns (draw refunded)
36%
Lustenau (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schruns at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

Lustenau away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.52 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schruns attack 1.19 + Lustenau defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lustenau attack 1.68 + Schruns defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Schruns scores more
28%
level
23%
Lustenau scores more
49%

Lustenau at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lustenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Schruns 1–0 Lustenau

Schruns beat Lustenau 1-0 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Golm in Schruns.