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Lustenau vs Schruns — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Lustenau
Lustenau
CANC
22:00
Schruns
Schruns
5/1/2020Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 24Stadion an der Holzstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lustenau60%
×Draw20%
Schruns21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lustenau
2.31
Schruns
1.29

Lustenau creates 79% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lustenau
2.21
Schruns
1.35

allows per match

Lustenau
1.23
Schruns
2.42

finishing

Lustenau+0.00on par
Schruns+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lustenau ↓

Schruns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lustenau or draw
79%
Lustenau or Schruns
80%
Draw or Schruns
40%

Winning margin

Lustenau wins by 2+
38%
Schruns wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lustenau 1+ goals
90%
Lustenau 2+ goals
67%
Lustenau 3+ goals
40%
Schruns 1+ goals
72%
Schruns 2+ goals
37%
Schruns 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lustenau (draw refunded)
74%
Schruns (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lustenau at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.23 · 71 matches

Schruns away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lustenau attack 2.21 + Schruns defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.31

Schruns attack 1.35 + Lustenau defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lustenau scores more
60%
level
20%
Schruns scores more
21%

Lustenau at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lustenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lustenau host Schruns

May 1, 2020: Lustenau take on Schruns in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lustenau host Schruns at Stadion an der Holzstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.