Schrems 1–1 Gaflenz: Result & Stats

Schrems

FT

1 – 1

Gaflenz

9/13/2019

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 7Birkenpark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Schrems49%

×Draw22%

Gaflenz29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SchremsExpected goals in this matchGaflenz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.45

Schrems

1.92

Gaflenz

1.45

Schrems creates 32% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 7 away

1.69

creates per match

1.29

1.61

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Schrems

1.69

Gaflenz

1.29

allows per match

Schrems

1.61

Gaflenz

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schrems+0.00on par

Gaflenz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schrems ↓

Gaflenz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Schrems or draw

71%

Schrems or Gaflenz

78%

Draw or Gaflenz

51%

Winning margin

Schrems wins by 2+

27%

Gaflenz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Schrems 1+ goals

85%

Schrems 2+ goals

57%

Schrems 3+ goals

30%

Gaflenz 1+ goals

77%

Gaflenz 2+ goals

42%

Gaflenz 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Schrems (draw refunded)

62%

Gaflenz (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schrems at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.61 · 87 matches

Gaflenz away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schrems attack 1.69 + Gaflenz defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.92

Gaflenz attack 1.29 + Schrems defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Schrems scores more

49%

level

22%

Gaflenz scores more

29%

Schrems at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Schrems will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff