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Gaflenz vs Schrems — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Gaflenz
Gaflenz
CANC
00:00
Schrems
Schrems
4/18/2020Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 22Sportzentrum Gaflenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Gaflenz51%
×Draw21%
Schrems28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaflenz
2.06
Schrems
1.48

Gaflenz creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 85 away

creates per match

Gaflenz
2.13
Schrems
1.22

allows per match

Gaflenz
1.75
Schrems
2.00

finishing

Gaflenz+0.00on par
Schrems+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaflenz ↓

Schrems →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gaflenz or draw
72%
Gaflenz or Schrems
79%
Draw or Schrems
49%

Winning margin

Gaflenz wins by 2+
30%
Schrems wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gaflenz 1+ goals
87%
Gaflenz 2+ goals
61%
Gaflenz 3+ goals
34%
Schrems 1+ goals
77%
Schrems 2+ goals
43%
Schrems 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gaflenz (draw refunded)
65%
Schrems (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaflenz at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Schrems away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaflenz attack 2.13 + Schrems defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Schrems attack 1.22 + Gaflenz defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gaflenz scores more
51%
level
21%
Schrems scores more
28%

Gaflenz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gaflenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gaflenz face Schrems (Landesliga - Niederosterreich)

Landesliga - Niederosterreich returns with Gaflenz hosting Schrems. Match starts April 18, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Gaflenz host Schrems at Sportzentrum Gaflenz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.