Schott Mainz 2–0 Mülheim-Kärlich: Result & Stats

Schott Mainz

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mülheim-Kärlich

10/29/2022

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Mainz Schott Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Schott Mainz80%

×Draw13%

Mülheim-Kärlich7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schott MainzExpected goals in this matchMülheim-Kärlich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

0.75

Schott Mainz

2.83

Mülheim-Kärlich

0.75

Schott Mainz creates 277% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 24 away

3.78

creates per match

0.83

0.67

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Schott Mainz

3.78

Mülheim-Kärlich

0.83

allows per match

Schott Mainz

0.67

Mülheim-Kärlich

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schott Mainz+0.00on par

Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz ↓

Mülheim-Kärlich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Schott Mainz or draw

93%

Schott Mainz or Mülheim-Kärlich

87%

Draw or Mülheim-Kärlich

20%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz wins by 2+

59%

Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Schott Mainz 1+ goals

94%

Schott Mainz 2+ goals

77%

Schott Mainz 3+ goals

53%

Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals

53%

Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals

17%

Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)

92%

Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz at home — creates 3.78, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Mülheim-Kärlich away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz attack 3.78 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.83

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 0.83 + Schott Mainz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Schott Mainz scores more

80%

level

13%

Mülheim-Kärlich scores more

7%

Schott Mainz at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff